Gartner’s Hype Cycle and H1B Happenings

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    The latest news is that the additional 20,000 H1Bs that the U.S congress authorized recently will be snapped up in one or two days. That’s right. ONE OR TWO DAYS! Our local newspaper has an article that immigration attorneys are scrambling to file the papers to take these visas before they run out.


    My Prediction is that H1Bs are currently at 65,000 but very soon they will be hiked to Dot com levels at around 185,000. It’s not my wishful thinking but there is a perfect storm brewing that will make this happen.


    Consider all of the below facts:


    Gartner’s Hype Cycle has Peak of Inflated Expectations as the second stage in any Hype Cycle. My guess is that 2007 will be this stage and 2008 will start the Trough of Disillusionment phase. Offshore software development is hard. I know. I do it everyday. With every company in the U.S and U.K vying for the pool of software engineers and other specialists in India, with wages there rising, turnover turning over development teams every 6 months or so, do you really think that many companies will get their development efforts just even stabilized, much less succeed? It’s hard enough to get software done, if you have a stable workforce and sitting two cubicles down from you. Chasing a moving target half way around the world is just wishful thinking. So what does this mean for H1Bs? As many of these efforts run into trouble, many companies will go back to an Onshore-Offshore combination from a purely Offshore one. This means we need more H1Bs for the onshore people that are sent from the offshore teams to sit here with the users and turn around projects that are having trouble. SEI/CMM Level 5 certifications cannot fix imprecise or changing requirements. Or problems in communication. Or trying to force customers to follow CMM Level 5 Rigor.


    Many Baby boomers are retiring and college enrollments in Computer Science have been half of what they were since before 9/11. So severe shortages in skilled people. Companies will try to fill this with on shore people with H1Bs. This was a very lucrative business for the current offshore service providers before it turned into purely offshore efforts. They will be eager to go back to this combination.


    Many bright people are not coming here anymore from other countries to do their MS and PhDs. They can find good paying jobs in their home countries. Many companies are pushing hard to convince congress to keep the people coming here with easier H1Bs and GreenCards. The lobby for this is getting stronger.


    Contrary to many claims of anti-outsourcing and anti-H1B camps, you cannot hire a main frame programmer to do C# coding. When was the last time you hired a house roofer to do your plumbing? Roofers can be trained to be plumbers too. It’s not my argument. It’s what I think is reality and how it will affect the lobby for H1Bs.


    Put all of these factors together and I predict a huge jump in H1Bs soon.


    I have been wrong before but all current happenings seem to be pointing in the direction I think it is going.


    Ironically, fighting H1Bs too hard will only increase the incentive for more offshoring.


    We all get swept up in the hype machine. Nobody is immune to that – Steven Cojocaru