Japan and China: Uncertain Times

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    Am I the only one who wonders what the Chinese protests in six cities against Japanese businesses herald for future outsourcing engagements?

    From the reports I’ve read, the Chinese involved in breaking windows, threatening Japanese visitors and causing mayhem among Japanese businesses (which in some cases aren’t owned by Japanese people) are “officially” driven by a heated desire to keep Japan from becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council and to pressure Japan to revise a 2001 history textbook to better reflect the extensive atrocities committed by the people of that country in the first half of the 1900s. Unofficially, they’re probably driven by other factors I’m not aware of. (When was the last time you got off the couch to protest a UN decision?)

    Chinese officials up until today have turned a blind eye to the violence. Diplomatic efforts have proven fruitless.

    The quagmire is this: Japan is China’s biggest trade partner. It currently consumes 61% of the IT outsourcing services provided by China-based firms.

    How this “spat” resolves itself will tell much about the economic binds that tie. Will potential loss of trade be enough to push China into compromise with Japan?

    Or could the US — and its growing indebtedness to China — be what China views as its ace? Are we expected to take up the slack relinquished by Japan if the arguments aren’t settled?

    This country of mine hasn’t had an unblemished record when it comes to its treatment of the Chinese in its past. Will US companies doing business in China in a decade find themselves suddenly and surprisingly under attack over slights we no longer give a second thought to a century later?

    Plus, our continued support of Taiwan’s independence must truly stick in the craw of the Chinese officials. How will that play out for firms wishing to do business in China?